Verónica Castro-AllendeThe International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has raised its projections for nuclear power growth for the fourth consecutive year, forecasting a 2.5-fold increase in atomic energy capacity by 2050. This growth is driven by the global transition to sustainable energy and the rising demand for small modular reactors (SMRs). SMRs, a new generation of compact and efficient nuclear reactors, offer flexibility in deployment and are ideal for smaller grids, remote locations, and non-electric applications like desalination and hydrogen production. The IAEA’s recent report highlights the growing international consensus on nuclear energy as a key solution to the climate crisis, with nuclear power featuring prominently at COP28 in Dubai. By 2050, nuclear capacity is expected to reach up to 950 GW, with SMRs contributing around a quarter of the additional capacity. Achieving this growth will require supportive federal policies, increased financing, a skilled workforce, and international regulatory harmonization. The IAEA will further discuss the role of SMRs in global energy strategies at its upcoming International Conference on SMRs and their Applications, underscoring their potential to revolutionize atomic power and contribute significantly to global decarbonization efforts.
For the fourth consecutive year, the International Atomic Energy Agency ( IAEA ) has raised its projections for nuclear power growth.
Atomic energy capacity is projected to increase 2.5 times by 2050 in response to the world transition to sustainable energy.
This increase will be fueled in part by the growing need for small modular reactors ( SMRs ), a technology that has attracted attention internationally for its potential to aid both electrification and broader environmental goals.
What are tiny compact reactors?
A new generation of nuclear reactors called little modular reactors are more lightweight and useful than conventional large-scale nuclear plants.
Their smaller size drastically reduces the amount of time and money needed for construction, allowing them to be built in factories and transported to sites.
SMRs typically produce less than 300 megawatts of electricity ( MWe ) per unit, compared to the 1, 000 MWe or more that large reactors generate.
SMRs are especially attractive in nations or regions with smaller grids, limited space, or less power demand.
They offer flexibility in deployment, making them ideal for rural areas, commercial sites, or even replacing fossil fuel plants.
Little modular reactors are regarded as safer because of their creative designs, which frequently have quiet safety systems that shut the reactor down in case of an emergency.
Beyond electricity generation, SMRs have the ability for non-electric applications such as desalination, hydrogen production, and district heating, making them a flexible solution for different energy needs.
IAEA projects big atomic expansion
The IAEA highlights the growing international consensus regarding nuclear energy as a key solution to the climate crisis in its recently released report, Energy, Electricity, and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050.
At COP28 in Dubai, nuclear power featured strongly for the first time in the World Stocktake, a landmark move that underscored the role of low-emission technologies, including nuclear, in achieving fast decarbonization.
As nations aim to meet climate goals while maintaining a dependable energy supply, IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi made an emphasis on the momentum behind nuclear energy, especially small modular reactors, at the 68th IAEA General Conference, which took place in Vienna.
The innovative IAEA projections reflect growing recognition of nuclear power as a safe and clean energy source as well as growing interest in SMRs to target both energy and non-electric applications, Grossi said.
Atomic power will more than triple by 2050.
Currently, 413 nuclear reactors operate worldwide, with a combined capacity of 371.5 gigawatts ( GW).
By 2050, the IAEA’s high-case scenario envisions a world nuclear capacity of 950 GW, more than doubling today’s output.
Even in the low-case scenario, capacity is expected to rise by 40 % to 514 GW. Importantly, SMRs are anticipated to contribute significantly to this growth, accounting for around a quarter of the added capacity in the high-case scenario.
The projections take into account many factors, including lifetime extensions for existing reactors, new construction projects, and potential reactor shutdowns.
Around 30 nations are now looking into ways to incorporate nuclear energy into their mix, many of which are brand-new atomic power players.
Important factors for success
Despite the optimistic outlook, the IAEA report details a number of enabling factors that are essential to achieving the growth plan.
These include federal policies that support nuclear development, increased financing opportunities, a skilled workforce, and international regulatory harmonisation, especially for SMRs.
Demonstration projects, investment in grid infrastructure, and supply chain management are also noted as essential components for scaling up atomic energy.
The IAEA will host the International Conference on SMRs and their Applications in March, bringing together experts from the nuclear industry to discuss ways to make SMR deployment more stable and healthy around the world.
Nuclear power, with a major contribution made by small modular reactors, is poised to play a vital role as the world is under increasing pressure to cut emissions and maintain a stable energy supply.
SMRs could be the key to unlocking atomic power’s full potential in the upcoming decades with the proper policies and investments in place.
